How to get closer to reality by betting

We are always choosing 

• We make many decisions without thinking of all alternatives and just doing the first good thing we can think of. 
• By making a decision a bet, we make explicit that we are choosing between multiple alternatives each with its benefits and risks 
• This helps us anticipate risks and protect ourselves against irrationality that causes us to act against our own interests. 

We bet our beliefs 

• Our bets are based on our beliefs and are only as good as our beliefs 
• We think we form our beliefs by rigorously testing them before we form them but in reality when we hear something, we believe it. Then only when we have the inclination and time to think about it will we test our beliefs. 
• When something challenges our belief we generally double down on it and seek out information that confirms our beliefs rather than updating it. 
• Being smart also doesn't help as they even more blind spots
• Being asked to bet causes you to examine your beliefs as now you're concerned about being right.
• When we incorporate uncertainty in our beliefs, it becomes easier to update them. For eg going from 80% confident to 60% confident is easier than thinking I am wrong about something. 
• When we express our certainty, it makes us better collaborators. It allows others to provide information that would help us to update our beliefs faster. 

Outcome fielding & self-serving bias 

Experience is not what happens to a man. It is what is a man does with what happens to him - Auldous Huxley

• The way to improve our decisions is to use the outcomes of our decisions to update our beliefs. 
• The outcomes in our life happen either due to skill or luck but it is difficult to tell which it is due to ambiguity. 
• We generally tend to associate a decision to skill if it went well and we associate it to luck when things go bad. We can't learn from others as we do the opposite with respect to others decisions. 
  
• This is due to the self-serving bias where we want to have a positive self-update with respect to others. 
• To change this habit, we need to keep the reward (positive self-updates wrt others) the same but change the routine of comparing not based on outcomes but to being a better truth-seeker, better credit giver, better mistake admiter 

Switching the mindset to truth-seeking

• Meditation allows us to be an observer of things without getting affected. But that would need us to be away from others etc.
• Another way is to change the mindset where we consider wrong outcome fielding (associating an outcome to be due to skill or luck) as a big risk. Treating outcome fielding as a bet can trigger this mindset change. 
• Thinking in bets is hard and is not a cure all. But if we can update a few of our beliefs to be closer to reality, it can make a huge difference. 

Truth-seeking groups

• To further improve our outcome fielding, we can form a group with people who are also interested in truth-seeking. 
• It is easier for others to see our blind spots. So by forming a group it is easier for each other to help see their blind spots. 
• The truth seeking group should have a charter with 
• commitment to accuracy - the idea is to get to the truth and not just conformity improving objectivity and open-mindedness
• accountability - the members have advance notice. 
• openness to diversity of ideas
• Dissent channels and red teams where organizations seek out dissenting information is one way of getting all sorts of ideas. 
• Norm is towards homogeneity and conformity. So we should seek out ways to improve diversity and guard against our group becoming a clone of ourselves. 

The only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion, and studying all modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this; nor is it in the nature of human intellect to become wise in any other manner. - John Stuart Mills

Seek out dissent to win 

• For our group to make the right decision and provide good suggestions, we should share all the data related to a situation. If an information makes us uncomfortable, we should definitely share it. The group should also query for more info if something is unclear. 
•  Don't ignore a message just because you don't like the message or the person who gave the message. Thinking of the message as being delivered by a person we admire can help us overcome this. 
• Try not to bias the group by not telling what the result was, who gave the idea, what your opinion on it etc. Just state the facts and let the group come up with its recommendations. 
• Skepticism means trying to see why something is wrong, not why it is right. This helps us to overcome our conformity bias and get a rational view of facts. Getting a devils advocate will help you see how to succeed. 
• To communicate in a truth seeking manner
• express uncertainty - this helps people help you by sharing their thoughts
• lead with assent - acknowledge their thoughts and then add more information. Use 'And' instead of but. 
• Ask if they are looking for advice or just venting. 
• When giving advice focus on the future - ask how they can improve in the future which decreases defensiveness. 

Source: Thinking in bets - Annie Duke