How to get closer to reality by betting

We are always choosing 

• We make many decisions without thinking of all alternatives and just doing the first good thing we can think of. 
• By making a decision a bet, we make explicit that we are choosing between multiple alternatives each with its benefits and risks 
• This helps us anticipate risks and protect ourselves against irrationality that causes us to act against our own interests. 

We bet our beliefs 

• Our bets are based on our beliefs and are only as good as our beliefs 
• We think we form our beliefs by rigorously testing them before we form them but in reality when we hear something, we believe it. Then only when we have the inclination and time to think about it will we test our beliefs. 
• When something challenges our belief we generally double down on it and seek out information that confirms our beliefs rather than updating it. 
• Being smart also doesn't help as they even more blind spots
• Being asked to bet causes you to examine your beliefs as now you're concerned about being right.
• When we incorporate uncertainty in our beliefs, it becomes easier to update them. For eg going from 80% confident to 60% confident is easier than thinking I am wrong about something. 
• When we express our certainty, it makes us better collaborators. It allows others to provide information that would help us to update our beliefs faster. 

Outcome fielding & self-serving bias 

Experience is not what happens to a man. It is what is a man does with what happens to him - Auldous Huxley

• The way to improve our decisions is to use the outcomes of our decisions to update our beliefs. 
• The outcomes in our life happen either due to skill or luck but it is difficult to tell which it is due to ambiguity. 
• We generally tend to associate a decision to skill if it went well and we associate it to luck when things go bad. We can't learn from others as we do the opposite with respect to others decisions. 
  
• This is due to the self-serving bias where we want to have a positive self-update with respect to others. 
• To change this habit, we need to keep the reward (positive self-updates wrt others) the same but change the routine of comparing not based on outcomes but to being a better truth-seeker, better credit giver, better mistake admiter 

Switching the mindset to truth-seeking

• Meditation allows us to be an observer of things without getting affected. But that would need us to be away from others etc.
• Another way is to change the mindset where we consider wrong outcome fielding (associating an outcome to be due to skill or luck) as a big risk. Treating outcome fielding as a bet can trigger this mindset change. 
• Thinking in bets is hard and is not a cure all. But if we can update a few of our beliefs to be closer to reality, it can make a huge difference. 

Truth-seeking groups

• To further improve our outcome fielding, we can form a group with people who are also interested in truth-seeking. 
• It is easier for others to see our blind spots. So by forming a group it is easier for each other to help see their blind spots. 
• The truth seeking group should have a charter with 
• commitment to accuracy - the idea is to get to the truth and not just conformity improving objectivity and open-mindedness
• accountability - the members have advance notice. 
• openness to diversity of ideas
• Dissent channels and red teams where organizations seek out dissenting information is one way of getting all sorts of ideas. 
• Norm is towards homogeneity and conformity. So we should seek out ways to improve diversity and guard against our group becoming a clone of ourselves. 

The only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion, and studying all modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this; nor is it in the nature of human intellect to become wise in any other manner. - John Stuart Mills

Seek out dissent to win 

• For our group to make the right decision and provide good suggestions, we should share all the data related to a situation. If an information makes us uncomfortable, we should definitely share it. The group should also query for more info if something is unclear. 
•  Don't ignore a message just because you don't like the message or the person who gave the message. Thinking of the message as being delivered by a person we admire can help us overcome this. 
• Try not to bias the group by not telling what the result was, who gave the idea, what your opinion on it etc. Just state the facts and let the group come up with its recommendations. 
• Skepticism means trying to see why something is wrong, not why it is right. This helps us to overcome our conformity bias and get a rational view of facts. Getting a devils advocate will help you see how to succeed. 
• To communicate in a truth seeking manner
• express uncertainty - this helps people help you by sharing their thoughts
• lead with assent - acknowledge their thoughts and then add more information. Use 'And' instead of but. 
• Ask if they are looking for advice or just venting. 
• When giving advice focus on the future - ask how they can improve in the future which decreases defensiveness. 

Source: Thinking in bets - Annie Duke 

Why a bad outcome doesn't make it a bad decision

TLDR; Our minds are not rational, most of the time we take shortcuts in our decisions which cause errors in our decisions. To overcome these, we need practical tools which Poker can teach us. We cannot be 100% certain our decision was right or wrong based on the result due to the influence of luck and or incomplete information.So we should not just put the decision as right or wrong but calibrate it between different shades of gray. A good decision involves following a process where we try to accurately map the state of our knowledge and taking the best guess based on that. 

Our minds are not built for rationality

Our minds have two different systems of thinking. System 1 is the reflexive mind. It has evolved to keep us safe, help us live in this world by creating a world that makes sense. It is fast and it takes shortcuts in thinking which may or may not be true. System 2 is the deliberative mind. It follows a more methodical thinking process and is used to take decisions about what we want to achieve where we think carefully. This is slow and energy consuming. 

The important thing is to realize that we only decide what to do using deliberative mind but when we are executing those decisions more often than not, we will be using the reflexive mind. Most of the errors in our decision making happen because of the pressure on the reflexive mind to do its job fast and automatically. 

The deliberative mind is already overtaxed and more will power or being aware of the fact that reflexive mind doesn't think carefully doesn't help us make use of deliberative mind more. We can only look for practical workarounds to overcome these limitations. 

Poker is a great place to learn how to execute well in face of uncertainty

Poker is a good place to learn these practical workarounds and poker players face the same challenges. They have to take decisions fast and under pressure but still have to make sure these decisions align with their long-term goals taken with a deliberative mind. 

Decision quality doesn't depend on results 

We tend to judge a decision based on the outcome. But an outcome may not be correlated to the decision due to the influence of luck and hidden information. What makes a good decision is a good process where we try to try to accurately represent the state of our knowledge. It necessarily involves some version of I don't know. 

Best poker players are aware of this and instead of looking for 100% certainty they take their best guess and calibrating their decisions along the way.

When we know we are not 100% sure we will not fall into the black and white thinking pattern where we put decisions in either the right or wrong bucket but we will see different shades of gray and we calibrate our decisions based on these. When we misrepresent the world in the extremes of right or wrong, it limits our ability to take the right decisions.  

We have to redefine wrong due to influence of luck & incomplete information

We have to redefine wrong as we can't be 100% sure that our decision caused the result.The decision might have been good but luck or incomplete information intervened. When we redefine wrong, we can let go of the anguish we feel when we get a bad result and we can let go of the happiness when we get a right result. We can get off the roller coaster. 

Since we can't be 100% certain but we keep taking decisions, it means we are always guessing. It helps us allocate our resources. 

Source: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke

Why are you so distracted and how to beat them?

Have you ever wondered why you get distracted so easily? 

Lori Gottileb in her book, "May you should talk to someone" says that most of our destructive habits start with the need to fill an emotional void. You find something easy to distract yourself and hide behind to forget the void. Before you know it the habits become so strong that you can't stop. 

To break the destructive habit, you have identify and fill that void. 

The best way to identify and break that is by giving yourself the space to observe the behavior from a distance. Meditation is exact tool that caters to this need. Once you become an impartial observer to your own thoughts, you can understand your needs. 

Then begins the real work required to meet those needs. You no longer need to hide behind a distraction.  

Welcome to Holland

 Today I want to introduce you to a thought provoking article written by Emily Perl Kingsley - about her experience about parenting a child with a disability. I came across this in the book - "May be you should talk with someone" by Lori Gottileb

I'm reproducing it in full here - 

When you're going to have a baby, it's like planning a fabulous vacation trip - to Italy. You buy a bunch of guide books and make your wonderful plans. The Coliseum. The Michelangelo David. The gondolas in Venice. You may learn some handy phrases in Italian. It's all very exciting. After months of eager anticipation, the day finally arrives. You pack your bags and off you go. Several hours later, the plane lands. The stewardess comes in and says, "Welcome to Holland." "Holland?!?" you say. "What do you mean Holland?? I signed up for Italy! I'm supposed to be in Italy. All my life I've dreamed of going to Italy." But there's been a change in the flight plan. They've landed in Holland and there you must stay. The important thing is that they haven't taken you to a horrible, disgusting, filthy place, full of pestilence, famine and disease. It's just a different place. So you must go out and buy new guide books. And you must learn a whole new language. And you will meet a whole new group of people you would never have met. It's just a different place. It's slower-paced than Italy, less flashy than Italy. But after you've been there for a while and you catch your breath, you look around.... and you begin to notice that Holland has windmills....and Holland has tulips. Holland even has Rembrandts. But everyone you know is busy coming and going from Italy... and they're all bragging about what a wonderful time they had there. And for the rest of your life, you will say "Yes, that's where I was supposed to go. That's what I had planned." And the pain of that will never, ever, ever, ever go away... because the loss of that dream is a very very significant loss. But... if you spend your life mourning the fact that you didn't get to Italy, you may never be free to enjoy the very special, the very lovely things ... about Holland.

Source: https://www.dsasc.ca/uploads/8/5/3/9/8539131/welcome_to_holland.pdf 

It is not just about parenting a child with disability. It is an apt metaphor for any kind of dream cut short. It was really beautiful and impactful. Whatever your life situation, if you come across a situation where you cannot achieve something you always wanted, then this gives you a new perspective. Look around and see how to have whale of a time in Holland! 

 

Past, Present & Future

 We expect something to happen in a certain way. We have built a future on that happening. It doesn't and we get depressed. 

There might be something that happened in the past either done by us or done to us. Either way, it caused us pain and we regret that. We keep going back there and hope to erase that. 

In both of these situations, what we are doing is not helpful. Both of them are a story that we tell ourselves and we have the power to rewrite the story. 

Lori Gottileb in her book - "Maybe you should talk to someone" talks about how to manage the pain the past and the future. 

Pain feels like it's in the present but it's actually in the past and the future. If we don't accept the notion that as much as we try and fix what happened years ago, our pasts will keep us stuck. We need to change our relationship to the past.  

Our notion of future can be as powerful roadblock to change. Future happens later but we're creating it in our minds everyday. When the present falls apart, so does the future we associated with it. 

If we try to spend the present trying to fix the past or control the future, we will remain stuck in place in regret. The solution is to focus on the present and focus less on the future. 

My health journey and thanks to my wife!

 
 I'm a vegetarian. I don't eat much street food or packaged food. So I expected to be healthy. So imagine my shock when I learned that I was pre-diabetic when I went for annual health checks a few years ago. That triggered my interest in learning more about food and improving my health.  My wife is also very interested in health and food and she was game for it. Thus began our research and experimentation with food.  The first change we made was to try slow carb diet. It did improve my markers a little bit. Then I had to move to Boston and got busy and food habits went back to the old ways.

In my next test, I discovered that not only was I pre-diabetic, but I had unhealthy cholesterol levels. This prompted us to work on our diet again, this time with more focus. We learnt more about seed oils and how they are dangerous. We changed oils to healthier ones and reduced the oil consumption. We improved our diet to add more salads, more beans and lesser rice. With all these changes, I'm happy to report that my blood markers have returned to normal levels.

Now if you read the above it might seem like simple changes. But the most important thing is to be consistent. For that, I'm super grateful to my wife. She took upon herself to integrate these changes into our life. She cooked the meals daily with fresh and healthy ingredients. Cooking meals daily from scratch three times a day is grinding work. Without her efforts, it wouldn't have been possible. I'm taking this chance to express my gratitude for her unsung and invaluable efforts!

Growing lettuce indoors

Too many simple carbs: 

As a person of south indian origin, rice is our staple food. Our family used to  eat everything with rice. Also being a vegan, we our meals were mostly carb loaded. As you know having too many simple carbs is dangerous. It is the main cause of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. This inspired us to improve the meals we had. Long story short, we tried reducing the amount of rice by having more salads. Once we found great dressings like this olive oil vinaigrette, olive oil sesame seed dressing and maple vinaigrette it was not tough to make the switch. 

Getting organic greens a hassle: 

The fact that we are eating the lettuce and spinach raw, we decided it is better to have these organic. We had some trouble having these things available in store. If we buy a lot of supply, something the green were getting damaged too. 

Can we grow it ourselves ?

So we were inspired to try growing lettuce ourselves. We figured that should be economical too. The only problem was that we live in a cold place, so we can't really grow it outside. The only solution was to grow it indoors if we want to grow it. 

We didn't have the experience before, but was still excited to give it a try.   

The setup: 

It seems to grow it indoors, the light we from the windows is not sufficient. So we need to buy a grow light for that. I bought a Mars Pro Sp 150 light. It was a good light with the accessories to hang it easily. 

Next I headed over to the home microgreens store to buy the soil, containers and seeds for growing. They have very helpful videos about how to plant and grow lettuce. These videos were very helpful to me in getting started. We planted them in a tray with holes in them (planting tray) and put them in another regular tray (watering tray). This way we can water it in the tray under and the roots from the top tray will absorb it. The seeds germinated in three days. We turn on the light around 7 am in the morning and then turn it off when we go to sleep around 10 PM at night. We water it once a day in the watering tray. After three weeks the lettuce was well grown and is ready for harvest. 

Results: 

I grew it in a small container to see how it grows. You can see the results for yourself below.  It grew very well and now we are planning to grow in bigger containers so that we have enough supply for our fresh salads. Not only lettuce, we also want to  grow herbs like cilantro, basil and mint. 

Conclusion: 

Once the initial setup is figured out, I am pleasantly surprised how easy it was to maintain them. If any of you are considering it, hope this shows how easy it is. Let me know if you grow something indoors or outdoors!